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Figure 2 | BioMedical Engineering OnLine

Figure 2

From: Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)

Figure 2

Approximation of an epidemic curve. The solid line represents the epidemic curve with assumed exponential growth within each reporting interval. The vertical dashed lines separate each reporting interval (week-wise). Growth rate in week k is assumed to be r k, and the area under the curve of week k (the cumulative incidence in each week) corresponds to the reported weekly incidence C k. Susceptible individuals in week k, S k, represent the number of susceptible individuals at the end of week k. The horizontal dotted line indicates the initial value of incidence, i k and represents the number of new cases at the beginning of week k.

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