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Table 1 Fivefold cross-validation results’ summary of forward predictive power and prediction range comparison between 2D and 3D stochastic models

From: 3D kernel-density stochastic model for more personalized glycaemic control: development and in-silico validation

 

Total predictions

1-hourly

2-hourly

3-hourly

58,539

57,840

57,141

2D model

% predictions in 25th–75th

55.9

53.4

52.6

% predictions in 5th–95th

91.4

91.0

91.0

3D model

% predictions in 25th–75th

52.6

51.3

51.0

% predictions in 5th–95th

90.5

90.2

90.2

3D vs. 2D model

% of tighter predictions using 3D model

73.8

72.8

69.9

% reduction in 5th–95th prediction width

24.4 [17.7 29.4]

17.9 [10.9 20.9]

15.5 [10.8 19.2]

% of wider predictions using 3D model

26.2

27.2

30.1

% increase in 5th–95th prediction width

22.0 [7.5 49.1]

16.4 [7.7 32.0]

14.8 [6.8 28.2]

  1. Data given as median [IQR] where appropriate